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Archive for the ‘Investment’ Category

One of the best daily show episodes i saw…
Here it is and it is a must watch!!!!!!
Here is the best quote of this entire show:
“Isn’t the dow jones industrial average, just a short twitch numerical representation, of a bunch of guesses, about other people’s assumptions, about the financial well being of, an arbitrarily chosen group [...]

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House passes the granduosly named American recovery and reinvestment plan, and, it is irrelevant at this point. For this plan is not far sighted enough nor does it change the game in any way. But don’t blame the president for this, for he was just working with in the boundaries of consitution. Fact is this [...]

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Here is the link to an informative article on nytimes, detailing the genesis and circumstances associated with the quantification of risk in a portfolio.
The book mentioned at the beginning of the article “Against the gods” is a part of a series of excellent books by Peter L Bernstein: Capital Ideas, Against the gods and The [...]

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NBER finally made its statement and we are in an official recession.
Apparently economic activity peaked in December 2007.

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So GS and MS want to become bank holding companies now.
This needs to be thought through properly before any comment is made.

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The bailout plan is not yet passed by the congress and oil is already above $104.
Why?????
Here’s the logic, US government is giving a bailout to the wall street, but FED has to create those $700 billions. Which means, huge amount of deficit in US. That implies US currency dollar will loose its purchasing power and [...]

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Do read this post on bailout plan.
Congratulations on this great first post.

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So federal government will buy all these unsellable mortgages from financial companies. And then will ask these very same financial companies to manage these mortgages for it.
I wonder if they could keep a straight face when they were thinking that up.
What next? No-bid contracts for managing these mortgages?

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What is with the time horizon of the bailout? Check this link.

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As surreal as it may sound, paulson’s corporate welfare plan in the guise of an economic bailout plan can not exclude foreign corporates. And that’s not because of the reason that paulson gave on the weekend talk shows (You know that one about “even a foreign corporate with significant american operation”).
It’s becuase most of these [...]

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Here is one of the funniest video’s on financial system in England.

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This is an excellent speech by John C Bogle, of “Vanguard” fame.
I particularly like the way he corrects claims on “Value Investing” as well.
Of course, we’ve been assured that “value investing wins” (not “has
won in the past”), especially in troubled markets.
It may sound orthodox, quaint and probably even puritanical to some, but to me that [...]

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Today the Dow Jones fell by about 390 points and simultaneously crude oil went up by about $10 per barrel. As usual with the market analysts, we have some cookie cutter explanations. Jobs report showing a fifth straight month of losses is supposed to have triggered a wall street collapse, even though the actual fall [...]

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This isn’t the kind of financial journalism i expect from nytimes. Today, they have an article titled “Conventional Wisdom, Foiled Again“. The article refers to a study conducted by a couple of professors who find that those stocks which have been dropped from Russel 2000 index tend to perform better then their replacement over a [...]

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Do you remember those days when Ben Bernanke was termed an “academic” by those on the wall street actively incited by financial media? August 2007 through March 15th 2008, when Bear Stearns was rescued by FED, Ben Bernanke was called that and worse.
Since Bear Sterns episode, have you heard any one say anything negative? Not [...]

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I call this an inflection point because, there are certain factors that have come into play which were not around the last time we had a recession, especially financial sector recession.
1. Competitive global economic landscape.
2. Future inflation in commodities.
3. Competing global currencies.
This is not a very late call about, emerging economies, rising oil and falling [...]

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Andy Grove, celebrated ex-chief of intel wrote a book titled “Only the paranoid survive”. It was a great read certainly, but the reason i recall it, was because, for quite some time now, i felt i was missing some thing, but could not place what it was. This, of course is in the context of [...]

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Check out these video’s on CNBC. Nobel Laureates in economics discuss US economy on CNBC, which despite being a business channel, never had this quality in its programming in years…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24311464
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24313079
Check out all the videos. Great stuff. Generally speaking, i am not a huge fan of CNBC. I think they are just a bunch of cheerleaders [...]

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Here is The Economist, suggesting that regulation strangles innovation.
The gist of this argument is, periodic financial crisis are a must for continued financial innovation. The alternative is slow growth and slumbering economy. While this argument may be rebutted in multiple ways, for each of the point made in the article, lets first focus on the [...]

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First and foremost, please treat all the opinions below as my personal analysis and do not take any action based on this.
Are we at the bottom of the economic crisis in the US? I believe we are close to being at the bottom. Calling the bottom being a question of judgement, there will not be [...]

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Apparently visa has decided that it will come out with the largest IPO ever in US stock market. As i see it, this is a risky maneuver for buyers. Currently financial industry is trversing an inflection point, asset repricing is in progress and most financial institutions are increasingly looking at monetizing as many different types [...]

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Given the way most economic predictions are going awry, it is safe to say we are in unknown territory. Trodden though this path is, it pays to briefly examine things that went off the predicted course, since this will allow us to break away from conventional wisdom in charting the way ahead.
When stock market [...]

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This week on “A” Daily show, as they call it these days, there was great satire. If this is what Jon Stewart can do with out the writers, think what could have been with them!
Here is one spot called Very Mad Money on the recent stock market sell off and tanking economy.
[thedailyshow=http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=148349&title=very-mad-money]
That’s not a [...]

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The Education of Ben Bernanke – New York Times
Here’s a brief but pretty good outline on the evolution of Federal Reserve.  Ron Paul fans should read this outline to understand their own arguments better!!!

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This article in latimes today is a very interesting take on what is noticed over the past decade or so. Any one with a partial understanding of financial markets and their history would have remembered times in late ’80s while reading this article. “Liar’s Poker” and “Bombardiers” are non-fictional and fictional accounts respectively of that [...]

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Now that most economists / analysts and other pundits are rather assured about recession in the US economy, and have started talking about the depth or intensity of it. The blogs are abuzz with the various views on the status of economy. While some predictions are dire, there are others which do not think so. [...]

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It was in March 2007, that S & P/ Case – Shiller Home price index first mentions deep trouble in Real Estate industry. To his credit, Robert Shiller made the correct call on real estate bubble back in 2005, at its peak. Over the past nine months, we moved from real estate bubble bursting to [...]

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This article was published by the newyork times today .
A classic case of the law of unintended consequences playing its part. World is complex and all most all modern systems are entangled in a web of diverse parts pulling in different directions. The underlying assumption that is expected to make the system work with out [...]

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Are you looking for some investment advice? This series by Henry Blodget is quite lucid and very informative.
Part One: What you won’t learn from your broker
Part Two: How Long Is “The Long Run”?
Part Three: Your Real Projected Returns ……. after fees, costs, taxes, and inflation.
Part Four: What financial advisers are good for … and [...]

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