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Archive for the ‘Financial Markets’ Category

One of the best daily show episodes i saw…
Here it is and it is a must watch!!!!!!
Here is the best quote of this entire show:
“Isn’t the dow jones industrial average, just a short twitch numerical representation, of a bunch of guesses, about other people’s assumptions, about the financial well being of, an arbitrarily chosen group [...]

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If you were watching CNBC or even follow MSNBC, you would have noticed this idiotic rant from one of CNBC’s so called market analysts.

Earlier we had Jim Cramer had a similar rant.

Notice how in the earlier instance, jim cramer was ranting about Ben Bernanke was doing all [...]

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Its called “Inside the meltdown” and full of left-liberal pundits, but it is a pretty good description of what went on during those crucial months last year.
Here it is…

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House passes the granduosly named American recovery and reinvestment plan, and, it is irrelevant at this point. For this plan is not far sighted enough nor does it change the game in any way. But don’t blame the president for this, for he was just working with in the boundaries of consitution. Fact is this [...]

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Here is the link to an informative article on nytimes, detailing the genesis and circumstances associated with the quantification of risk in a portfolio.
The book mentioned at the beginning of the article “Against the gods” is a part of a series of excellent books by Peter L Bernstein: Capital Ideas, Against the gods and The [...]

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NBER finally made its statement and we are in an official recession.
Apparently economic activity peaked in December 2007.

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So GS and MS want to become bank holding companies now.
This needs to be thought through properly before any comment is made.

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Dow is currently about a 150 points down. Over the next couple of days there may again be volatile swings in stock market. Such volatility may be used to pressure congress to pass paulson’s plan. Volatility in the stock market is natural in such troubled times and should not cause a panic among the congressional [...]

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The bailout plan is not yet passed by the congress and oil is already above $104.
Why?????
Here’s the logic, US government is giving a bailout to the wall street, but FED has to create those $700 billions. Which means, huge amount of deficit in US. That implies US currency dollar will loose its purchasing power and [...]

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Do read this post on bailout plan.
Congratulations on this great first post.

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So federal government will buy all these unsellable mortgages from financial companies. And then will ask these very same financial companies to manage these mortgages for it.
I wonder if they could keep a straight face when they were thinking that up.
What next? No-bid contracts for managing these mortgages?

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What is with the time horizon of the bailout? Check this link.

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Apparently, democrats want to limit executive compensation as a part of the bailout plan according to this report in the new york times. Apart from being symbolic, it is silly, divisive and very difficult to arrive at. Unless it is being used as a negotiating tactic, this proposal has no place in this law.
The really [...]

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As surreal as it may sound, paulson’s corporate welfare plan in the guise of an economic bailout plan can not exclude foreign corporates. And that’s not because of the reason that paulson gave on the weekend talk shows (You know that one about “even a foreign corporate with significant american operation”).
It’s becuase most of these [...]

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I know that’s not supposed to be the reaction to this bail out plan. But i do and here is why.
The bailout plan asks the amount of money, which hopefully, will allow all the financial institutions to take off unsellable mortgages off the books. All the following points arise.
1. The $700 billion dollars is not [...]

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Here is one of the funniest video’s on financial system in England.

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Here is an interesting series from financial times.
Here it is….

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This is an excellent speech by John C Bogle, of “Vanguard” fame.
I particularly like the way he corrects claims on “Value Investing” as well.
Of course, we’ve been assured that “value investing wins” (not “has
won in the past”), especially in troubled markets.
It may sound orthodox, quaint and probably even puritanical to some, but to me that [...]

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Here’s a post by Paul Krugman in nytimes on crude cost and speculation.
While i agree with the logic of this argument, a couple of curious points that should have been taken into account are as follows:
1. Assuming OPEC nations raise their production substantially, shouldn’t crude price go down? The natural response to crude price going [...]

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Here is a link to an article on FT where FED’s tough position is explained.
We discussed this some time back.

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Today the Dow Jones fell by about 390 points and simultaneously crude oil went up by about $10 per barrel. As usual with the market analysts, we have some cookie cutter explanations. Jobs report showing a fifth straight month of losses is supposed to have triggered a wall street collapse, even though the actual fall [...]

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Check out this article by Lawrence Summers on financial times. Reading the article it is evident there was a lot of thought that went into it. However, this was a very high level thinking. Every single point mentioned there in seem reasonable but putting these into practice takes a lot more detailing. For instance, the [...]

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This isn’t the kind of financial journalism i expect from nytimes. Today, they have an article titled “Conventional Wisdom, Foiled Again“. The article refers to a study conducted by a couple of professors who find that those stocks which have been dropped from Russel 2000 index tend to perform better then their replacement over a [...]

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Do you remember those days when Ben Bernanke was termed an “academic” by those on the wall street actively incited by financial media? August 2007 through March 15th 2008, when Bear Stearns was rescued by FED, Ben Bernanke was called that and worse.
Since Bear Sterns episode, have you heard any one say anything negative? Not [...]

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This is an interesting article on financial derivative products on financial times site. A pretty good round up of the last the last 15 years of the industry evolution.

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I call this an inflection point because, there are certain factors that have come into play which were not around the last time we had a recession, especially financial sector recession.
1. Competitive global economic landscape.
2. Future inflation in commodities.
3. Competing global currencies.
This is not a very late call about, emerging economies, rising oil and falling [...]

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Andy Grove, celebrated ex-chief of intel wrote a book titled “Only the paranoid survive”. It was a great read certainly, but the reason i recall it, was because, for quite some time now, i felt i was missing some thing, but could not place what it was. This, of course is in the context of [...]

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Check out these video’s on CNBC. Nobel Laureates in economics discuss US economy on CNBC, which despite being a business channel, never had this quality in its programming in years…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24311464
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24313079
Check out all the videos. Great stuff. Generally speaking, i am not a huge fan of CNBC. I think they are just a bunch of cheerleaders [...]

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Here is The Economist, suggesting that regulation strangles innovation.
The gist of this argument is, periodic financial crisis are a must for continued financial innovation. The alternative is slow growth and slumbering economy. While this argument may be rebutted in multiple ways, for each of the point made in the article, lets first focus on the [...]

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First and foremost, please treat all the opinions below as my personal analysis and do not take any action based on this.
Are we at the bottom of the economic crisis in the US? I believe we are close to being at the bottom. Calling the bottom being a question of judgement, there will not be [...]

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